Please note that we released our Veyt Medium Term Supply GO Forecast Model. You can read more about it 

In a marked shift, the leading products of Nordic and EU Hydro experienced significant declines in their market positions for the 2023 editions, narrowing the gap with their 2024 successors.

EU Hydro's 2024 product notably plummeted to a record low, reaching a bottom of 5.15 EUR/MWh, a level not seen since the previous year's monthly averages. In a parallel development, Nordic Hydro's 2024 version declined to 5.04 EUR.

Across the board, all GOs for 2024 witnessed a decrease exceeding 0.7 EUR/MWh over the past month.

Delving deeper into the price metrics for EU Hydro, the average price for the 2025 product is pegged at 5.43 EUR/MWh, with a further dip to 4.83 EUR/MWh for the 2026 edition.

A notable price convergence was observed in the monthly averages in November, specifically for Nordic and EU Hydro 2024 and 2025 GOs. 

The 2025 GOs vintage, particularly within the Nordic Hydro category, clinched the apex of the market, registering a commanding 5.39 EUR/MWh.

On closer examination, the price dynamics revealed a noteworthy spread of 67 Eurocents between the EU Hydro’s offerings for 2025 and 2026, with 2025 decidedly taking the lead in terms of market value.

A noticeable discrepancy has materialised in the pricing landscape, as evidenced by the disparity between the offerings of Nordic Hydro for the 2024/2025 vintages and those of their EU Hydro counterparts, with the spreads favouring the latter by 11 Eurocents for both, spreads that are declining by almost 60 Eurocents compared to last month.

The trend we observed last month (where Nordic Hydro > EU Wind GOs) seems to have continued this month. The average prices for this month indicate that EU Wind is trading at a discount to Nordic Hydro for 2023 and 2024 vintages, marked by disparities of 164 and 17 Eurocents respectively.

November saw a significant deceleration in trading activities, as evidenced by a 43% month-on-month decline in the number of trades and a substantial 42% fall in overall trading volumes.

Notably, transactions from the current year, 2023, played a dominant role in November's trading landscape, constituting 34% of the volume and 42% of the total number of trades.

The primary focus during the month was on meeting the immediate and medium-term needs of buyers, covering the 2023-2025 period. These trades accounted for a dominant 91% of total activity, mirroring the volume trends and marking a 6 percentage point increase from the previous month's comparable period.


The latest graphical data, spanning Weeks 43 to 47, offers a telling insight into reservoir level fluctuations, albeit with the caveat that the data available does not extend to the end of November (Week 48).

A pronounced decrease in Nordic reservoir levels was observed throughout November, culminating in levels dropping below the usual benchmarks.

By the end of Week 47, Nordic reservoirs stood at 72.9%, reflecting a significant 10 percentage point reduction since the month's start, positioning them 3.2 points below average. Projections for Week 51, as December draws to a close, paint a rather stark picture, forecasting a further drop to 59.4%, which would place the reservoirs 9.5 points beneath the standard levels.

Norwegian reservoirs, a critical component in the Nordic region, exhibited a substantial decrease of 9.8 points in November, resulting in levels 3.1 points below the seasonal average. Forecasts leading up to Week 51 suggest a continued decline to 60.5%.

In contrast, Central Western Europe's reservoirs demonstrated notable resilience, maintaining levels well above average. By Week 47, these reservoirs reached 81.0%, surpassing the norm by 8.8 points. However, a slight adjustment is expected by Week 51, with levels potentially dipping to around 75.0%, yet still above typical levels for this period.

The Iberian Peninsula mirrored Central Western Europe's trend, with reservoir levels increasing significantly. Ending Week 47 at 53.4%, they showed a remarkable improvement of 9.0 points since November's beginning, surpassing the usual levels by 7.1 points. This marks a considerable turnaround from the slight 0.1-point deficit noted at the month's start. The outlook for Week 51 suggests a gradual ascent to 56.1%.

November 2023 Monthly Nordic Hydro

November 2023 Monthly Norway Hydro

November 2023 Monthly Central Western Europe Hydro

November 2023 Monthly Iberian Peninsula Hydro

The Revised Renewable Energy Directive has officially entered into force on 20 November 2023

AIB permanently closes its case against the export of Icelandic GOs

. The move had no impact on the market as the export ban was lifted in June 2023; however, this should improve market confidence in Icelandic GOs.

According to internal communication from the AIB to Landsnet: “Any potential open issues that were detected by Icelandic authorities are left to them to resolve within Iceland. During the regular member audit, Landsnet will be asked for an update”.

It is unclear what steps Landsnet has taken to address double claiming as their report was not made public; the AIB’s assessment panel has previously suggested requesting confirmation from producers before issuing GOs and suspending exports for parties where double counting is likely.

French decree allows optional full disclosure, nuclear GOs to hit the market

The French decree relating to electricity GOs (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/id/JORFTEXT000048423398) extended the right of issuance to all primary electricity sources has entered into force on 19 November 2023. This means that French nuclear GOs will be injected into the market.

With the introduction of optional full disclosure, concerns could arise regarding potential double counting issues in relation to the application of the French state aid rules for indirect emission costs, where location-based method is used to prove carbon-free electricity consumption.

Timewise, there is no certainty as to when EDF would open the gates for nuclear GOs to the market;additional nuclear GO supply will likely suppress prices below the current 0.7EUR/MWh mark. EPEX SPOT comments on plans to start offering nuclear GOs in a separate auction from Q1 2024. When it comes to volumes, EDF could start offering 

CBAM implementing regulation reaffirms the role of PPAs for carbon intensity management; excludes EACs

On 17 August 2023, the Commission released the first set of secondary legislation that will govern the implementation of the CBAM.

During the transition period between 1 October 2023 and 31 December 2025, there is no CBAM certificate surrender obligation, reporting of emissions in CBAM-goods is however, mandatory.

Securing electricity via renewable PPAs (but not unbundled EACs) is an option to manage carbon exposure; otherwise producers need to rely on default values provided by the IEA.

The objective of this transitional period is to serve as a pilot and learning period for all stakeholders, meaning that the methodology used to report embedded emissions will likely be refined before 2026.

From October to November, there was a significant uptick in market activity, with a continued emphasis on the 2023 and 2024 vintages.

Given the current projections for reservoir levels, it is anticipated that prices for the 2023 vintage will fluctuate within the range of 3.5 to 4.5 EUR/MWh.

In contrast, a thorough fundamental analysis, underpinned by empirical evidence, points to a promising outlook for the 2024 and 2025 contracts. These are expected to regain strength, surpassing the 5.5 EUR/MWh level. Currently, prices for these vintages are hovering around the 5 EUR benchmark.

Should you have remarks, suggestions, and/or questions, do not hesitate to contact me at 

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November 2023 - GO Market Overview

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Related reading

Week 49: RGGI benchmark contract surpasses USD 15.00/st following the Q4 auction

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Medium-term forecast: New version released (November generation data included)

EU ETS - Free Allocation Regulation draft published alongside call for feedback

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