This week's trading in the GOs market was characterised by an overall uptrend, with prices escalating across various vintages, despite some setbacks in specific products. 

The rise spanned from a slight 0.08 EUR for EU Unspecified 2024 to a more pronounced 0.26 EUR for EU Wind 2023. Notably, the most significant movement was a decrease, with EU Wind/Solar/Hydro shedding 0.32 EUR, falling from 4.72 to 4.40 EUR.

The 2025 vintage stood out with an average price hike of 0.26 EUR/MWh, straddling the 5 EUR threshold.

Meanwhile, the 2023 vintage saw modest gains, as evidenced by Nordic Hydro’s increase of 0.17 EUR. The price differential between the 2023 and 2024 contracts remained stable, with the 2024 contracts holding a consistent 1 EUR advantage for most products.

In the price spread between Nordic and EU contracts for the 2024 vintage, the variance stayed relatively constant. For example, EU Hydro continued to maintain a premium of approximately 0.2 to 0.25 EUR over its Nordic counterpart.

In the current trading week, the market witnessed a discernible downturn, characterized by a 13% decline in transaction frequency and a considerable 33% fall in traded volumes, with the 2024 vintage experiencing the most notable drop compared to the previous week.

Amidst this subdued trading environment, the 2024 vintage assumed a central role, accounting for an impressive 47% of the week's total trading volume. The activity for other vintages remained relatively muted, further emphasizing the dominant position of the 2024 vintage in the market's dynamics.

W48 2023: Hydro Reservoir Nordic

W48 2023: Hydro Reservoir Norway

W48 2023: Hydro Reservoir Central Western Europe

W48 2023: Hydro Reservoir Iberian Peninsula

As we approach the end of Week 48, a detailed examination of the Nordic hydropower reservoirs reveals a continuing downward trend, now in its seventh consecutive week. Reservoir levels are expected to fall to 69.6% capacity, descending 4.9 percentage points below the historical average, levels not seen since Week 31. In stark contrast, Central Western Europe paints a different picture, with reservoirs projected to reach 78.6% capacity, marking a substantial 9.3% excess over the seasonal norm, despite a general decline. Meanwhile, the Iberian Peninsula’s hydrological resurgence pauses this week, with levels anticipated to reduce to 51.9% capacity in Week 48, yet still significantly higher than typical by 5.2 points.

 continued decline is linked to below-average rainfall in recent weeks, capturing just half the expected volumes in Weeks 45 and 46. However, an uptick in rainfall in Week 47, particularly in Finland and Norway, has kept hydroelectric production above the seasonal average. Projections until Week 51 suggest a fall to levels between those recorded in 2021 and 2022, around 60%, well below the average.

 hydro reserves, currently at 78.6%, maintain a notable 9.3 percentage point lead over the average. Despite a downward trajectory, above-average rainfall forecasted for the region is expected to sustain reservoir levels significantly above the norm.

, typically accustomed to weekly decreases in reservoir levels at this time of year, maintains an optimistic outlook. Given the considerable precipitation from Weeks 42 to 45 and expected in Weeks 48 to 50, 2023 levels are projected to substantially surpass typical figures. Reservoirs in this region are estimated to peak at 52.5% in Week 51, surpassing the 39.4% and 49.5% recorded in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

In the context of declining reservoir levels in the Nordic region, now clearly below the average, the market for the current vintage's GOs showcased resilience, marked by dynamic trading activity this week. Despite notable price drops, with figures oscillating between 3.5 and 4.5 EUR, the market retained a degree of stability amid broader volatility.

Looking towards the year's end, the projections for the 2024 and 2025 GOs remain firm. The market anticipates these vintages will consistently trade in the 5 to 6 EUR/MWh bracket, signalling a steady market sentiment as the industry moves into the new year.

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GO Week 48 Update - 2024 GOs dominate a contrasted trading week

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